comScore's latest release shows Google with 41.4% share of all "searches" conducted in the U.S. in January 2006, continuing its trend of recent years. The comScore numbers have been inching up over that time, getting closer to the numbers reported by rivals Hitwise and Netratings, who have consistently given Google 50% share or more. Yahoo now clocks in at 28.7%. MSN comes in at a very respectable 13.7%. Sez comScore, anyway. What do your logs say?
When you break the numbers down even further -- either in your private data or by looking at more detailed reports from these agencies -- it gets interesting. Google Images often places #4. That probably means that Yahoo properties like Flickr (not to mention ordinary image search) are also surging. Other search categories, like news, shopping, blog, video, and local, are bound to follow as users get more sophisticated.
But users will be directed to these based on their initial choice of homepage or search box (or toolbar or...), quite often. Some users have preferences for, say, Google News, Yahoo Shopping, Google Local, or Flickr. But many don't, and need prompting.
So, Mr. Diller's recent keynote comment about Ask.com, that it "doesn't matter if we have 6% share or 2% -- what matters is relevance" isn't exactly true." This home page, direct navigation, and core search market share matters a lot. But we'll give him this point, because what he means is building a better product is the only way to improve share. It's not clear at all, though, that "no media business stays at 30, 40% market share for long," as Diller argued. Is search a "media business" in that way? Why isn't it more like an operating system or a browser (market shares for MSFT have exceeded 80% at times), a kind of standard? He acknowledges that it's a powerful "habit." Well, maybe it's somewhere in between, where 30-50% shares won't break down as easily as all that.
So if there's any way that the now butler-less IAC can make further strategic acquisitions to bring "searchers" in the back door -- as Yahoo has done with Flickr -- then now's the time.
Posted by Andrew Goodman
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