Will Google Defend its Yahoo Turf?

Google's search partnership with Yahoo is coming up for renewal. Recall that Google extended its reach significantly and gained credibility when it was chosen to provide search infrastructure for Yahoo, replacing Inktomi, which had previously replaced AltaVista. Yahoo has never used in-house technology to offer "web index" results, but of course has many navigational offerings of its own such as the human-edited Yahoo Directory, Full Coverage news, etc. Some speculate that Google is increasingly becoming a competitor to the major portals, so Yahoo would be reluctant to fuel Google's growth any further. But Google's recent inking of a search and advertising partnership with AOL seems to indicate that that line of thinking is exaggerated.

Here's my quick and dirty attempt to handicap the "who will Yahoo choose as its search partner?" race. For entertainment purposes only. Void where prohibited by law.

Yahoo stays with Google ---> This is the prohibitive odds-on favorite. Yahoo can develop new, innovative revenue-generating variations in concert with the industry leader; yes, a renewal fuels a competitor of sorts, but bottom lines are bottom lines and staying with Google offers the best short and medium term outcome for Yahoo, which needs to worry about its stock price and its consumer image.

Inktomi ---> 4 to 1. No real reason for Yahoo not to do it other than wanting to stay with status quo & the leader. Inktomi has
a high quality, customizable search index, experience in the space, and is hungry for business since the loss of its partnership with AOL.

FAST Search ---> 8 to 1. A strong contender, but it probably won't happen in part because the company's roots are in Europe and its North American operations are in the Boston area, whereas others are more firmly entrenched in Silicon Valley. Inktomi may be more motivated to pitch Yahoo, and Inktomi has a more mature paid-inclusion offering. On July 1, Lycos is launching what it calls Lycos Search 6.0 (powered by a newly beefed up FAST Search), so FAST seems to be a continuing presence in the space with one major global portal partner, Terra Lycos, clearly happy with its offerings.

AltaVista ----> 12 to 1. Nostalgia buffs would love it. Enterprise division could be a good hedge; this dark
horse may someday surprise but is a more likely fire-sale acquisition for a Yahoo than a consumer search partner, but who knows. Incidentally, AltaVista plans to roll out a new (and discount-priced) version of its Express Submit option in July. Details to come.

Teoma / Ask Jeeves ----> 20 to 1. Teoma is coming on strong, but Not Yet Ready for Prime Time Partnerships. For the foreseeable future, Ask Jeeves looks to be an attractive acquisition target, so one way or another they're poised to make some noise for the remainder of the year.

All Overture, All the Time ----> 350 to 1. After Disney pulled the plug on it, the going-going-gone Go.com went to 100% sponsored search listings via a partnership with Overture. Yahoo won't do this for the simple reason that everyone would laugh at them, point fingers, and compare them to Go.com. No short-term revenue goal can be worth being relegated to the Internet Hall of Shame by an increasingly savvy public.

Metasearch roaring across the finish line out of nowhwere (eg. Infospace's new Excite Metasearch) ----> 400 to 1.

In-house product developed in secret underground lab, or by a sneaky old company like IBM ----> 500 to 1.

Microsoft technology ----> 1 billion to 1.

With all those fun things to speculate on, won't it be disappointing when they just renew with Google? :)

Andrew Goodman is Editor-at-Large of Traffick.com and the author of "Winning Results with Google Adwords".