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VIEW FROM THE ALPS #2 - by J.C. Allison, January 14, 2000
Statistics and rankings are the currency of internet pundits.
They change hands so quickly that tracking down their source is often an
exercise in futility. When you try to follow the trail, more often than not you
find yourself looking at a press release from some internet consulting company
that's been in existence for less than six month, but who are charging $2,000
for you to get your hands on the full study.
Forrester Research and Jupiter Communications are two of the
more ever-present consulting companies whose predictions about future trends in
e-commerce, in how many mp3 files will be downloaded, on the weather next
Tuesday, are reported over and over again. But the current leader in the
quotable rankings field is without a doubt, Media Metrix.
This past
December, Media Metrix established its first beachhead in the European press
with the release of rankings, by its subsidiary MMXI-Europe, of the top 10 sites in the
UK, France and Germany for the month of November, 1999. Media Metrix produces
its rankings through a software application, the "Meter," that is installed on
the computers of participants in the survey, of whom there are close to 3,000 in
each country. The Meter carefully records every aspect of the survey
participants' surfing behaviour, "site by site, click by click, second by
second."
Although I poked around most of the corners of their website, I
couldn't find any information on just who the participants are, whether they are
paid, or how they are selected that somehow makes them, as MMXI claims,
"representative of Internet users." I would imagine that anyone who has ever
felt the need to clear their browser history might hesitate before signing up
for second by second monitoring of their Internet use.
But bringing the
topic back to portals, which is, after all, the raison d'être of
Traffick: the biggest surprises in the MMXI European surveys were the strong
showing of Yahoo and the relatively weak position of AOL.
As I
reported in my last column, T-Online from Deutsche Telekom and Wanadoo from
France Telecom were the number one web properties in their respective countries.
Their leads were fairly significant with T-Online having a 68.5% reach, more
than double second-place Yahoo's 32.6% reach for Germany, and Wanadoo having a
51.3% reach over Yahoo's 41.4% second second-place ranking. In the UK, the
leading site by a slim margin was Freeserve, backed by a popular chain of
electronic stores, which captured a huge chunk of the ISP market in Britain by
being the first out of the gate with a free ISP service, a business model that
has since rippled across Europe. And yes, Yahoo was in second place.
The
media generally seemed to show surprise at Yahoo's strong presence in Europe,
given that it has had a much lower profile than the vocal AOL and everybody's
bête noir, Microsoft. But the key to Yahoo's success is their
strong focus on categorizing the best local content, something they accomplish
by hiring surfers with first-hand knowledge of the local culture. In addition to
their staff in London, Paris and Munich, Yahoo imports fresh local recruits
into their Santa Clara headquarters. So many, in fact, that they were probably
one of the principal causes of the U.S. federal government having to raise the
limits on visas for the IT sector.
AOL finished third in Germany,
although it would be in second place if the Netscape sites were included, and
fifth in the UK and France. After the recent announcement of a merger with
Time-Warner, AOL's future in Europe is uncertain. The press has tried to make
sense of how all that Time-Warner content will benefit, and bring in more, AOL
subscribers.
Despite the fact that Europeans do indeed eat up American
films and music, I don't think that the prospect of having first dibs on Warner
Bros films, or Warner recording artists' music downloads, will bring Europeans
stampeding to the AOL gates. If I may quote a slide from an inaccessable study,
Project Atlas 1999,
by IDC, over 75% of Germans and almost 60% of the French prefer native language
sites. And in case you were wondering what the most popular movie of 1999 was in
France, you may be surprised to discover that the young Anakin Skywalker was
defeated by... Gerard Depardieu as Obelix in "Asterix et Obelix contre
Cesar."
The biggest fallout from the Time-Warner merger might be the
effect on AOL's relationship with German media giant, and Time-Warner
competitor, Bertelsmann. Thomas Middelhoff, CEO and Chairman of Bertelsmann, has
announced that he would resign from the board of AOL. Although both sides are
claiming that the merger won't disrupt the close relationship between
Bertelsmann and AOL Europe, we might want to keep an eye on any new developments
over at Lycos Europe, where Bertelsmann also has a 26% stake.
The
challenge for the major portals to succeed outside of the U.S. is to provide
useful and entertaining local content, which means engaging with cultures that
are foreign to the North American experience, and not simply slapping subtitles
onto their pre-existing properties. Otherwise, their only function will be as
guides to North American internet resources, something which is useful now, but
as the internet continues to develop in Western Europe and beyond, they risk
being pushed aside by up-and-coming native sites. However, the same warning
applies to any local site that tries to break out of its national and linguistic
boundaries.
Despite my reservations about MMXI, they have succeeded in
bringing attention to the much neglected native European portal scene and I only
hope that they continue to expand their sample pool to cover more and more
countries. It is difficult enough to get any measure of European internet users'
habits, let alone trying to establish what's going on in Moldova or Kyrgyzstan.
(Perhaps I'll explain why one would possibly want to know that in a future
column.) So more power to MMXI and any competitors that
should emerge.
In my next column, I'll take a look at some of the
sites, and partnerships of sites, that are trying to become pan-European
portals.
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So how is the view from the Alps? You can reach J.C.
Allison at jca@traffick.com.

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